I listened to a friend’s prediction about the direction of the economy. He’s certain we’re heading into a deep recession. When we’ve faced dynamics like today’s, certain things happened that led to a deep recession. Because those things happened before, he’s certain they’ll happen again.

I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m not comfortable with my friend’s approach. Everything he knows for certain is about the past. The current environment might be similar, but it isn’t exactly the same. It’s not a certainty that the future will play out just as the past did. I believe the past repeating itself is one of a variety of possible outcomes. We could go into a deep recession, but various other outcomes are also possible because factors are at play today that didn’t exist in the past. Each of these possible outcomes has some probability of occurring. Stating with certainty that a particular outcome will happen ignores that fact.

The world is full of randomness. Anything can happen.

I hope everyone had a great Easter!

I wanted to take today to celebrate the late Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. His contributions to society were foundational in moving our country closer to equality for all.

Hope everyone had a great MLK Day!

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I listened to an interview with James Clear, the author of Atomic Habits. He discussed his own daily habits and shared the concept of an upstream habit. The idea is that by doing this one thing habitually, you increase the likelihood of maintaining other habits or generally being set up for a good day. Working out in the morning is his upstream habit.

I agree with this upstream habit concept. Last year, I identified my foundational habit. Focusing on this single habit gives me momentum for the day and increases my chances of keeping up with other habits and having a productive day.  

What’s your upstream habit?