I spoke with a buddy today whose mother tried Instacart because of the pandemic. She’s an amazing Southern cook who took pride in handpicking the best ingredients. According to my buddy, she’ll probably never go to the grocery store again. Not regularly anyway. Yes, she enjoyed the Instacart experience that much. I walked away thinking that e-commerce has hit a critical inflection point. A significant segment of consumers of all ages are comfortable purchasing most items online.

When I started CCAW in 2007, e-commerce was available and thriving, but it hadn’t fully penetrated everyday life. The idea of buying groceries online wasn’t new, but to the masses it was farfetched. I’ve been reflecting on how today (or rather 2019) compares to 2007. I looked at e‑commerce juggernaut Amazon.com to compare the two time periods. Here’s what I found:

2007 Annual Figures

• Revenue (sales) – $14.8B
• Net income (profit) dollars – $476M
• Net Income (profit) as a percentage – 3%

2019 Annual Figures

• Revenue (sales) – $280.5B
• Net income (profit) dollars – $11.5B
• Net income (profit) as a percentage – 4%

Of course, Amazon does a lot more now than in 2007. It owns Whole Foods Market, sells computing services through its AWS unit, and is involved in a host of other things. However, all these other business lines seem to complement its core e-commerce business. To keep things simple, I used its high-level figures and didn’t strip business units out.

Here are my takeaways:

• Amazon’s sales increased 19x from $14.8B to $280.5B in twelve years. Impressive, especially when you consider the law of large numbers.
• Walmart is probably the largest retailer in the world. It reported over $520B in sales during a similar period (Walmart’s fiscal year ended January 31, 2020, while Amazon’s ended December 31, 2019). Amazon has a long way to go, but it’s conceivable that its sales could surpass Walmart’s in the next decade.
• Net profit as a percentage is small at around 4% of 2019 revenue. Price competition is serious when many retailers offer the same products. Amazon keeps only 4 cents for every $1 in sales. That’s about right. Walmart keeps about 3.8 cents.
• Net profit dollars increased 24x from $476M to $11.5B in twelve years. Net profit dollars grew faster than sales despite the heavy investment required to support rapid growth. I know for a fact that Amazon’s other business units (mainly AWS) contributed significantly to increasing profitability.

Commerce has changed a lot in the last twelve years, and the pandemic has accelerated this change. Amazon was well positioned to capitalize on it and has made the most of it. I see a wave of new companies like Instacart contributing to the refashioning of commerce by fulfilling consumers’ needs in innovative ways via the internet.

What do you see commerce looking like in the next ten years?