A few years ago, I sold an extra vehicle. I’ve been a passionate car enthusiast since middle school, so it wasn’t an easy decision. Here’s my logic:

• I could drive only one car at a time. Owning more than one car was fun but felt wasteful.
• I wanted to simplify life by getting rid of unnecessary things that require time and energy to maintain. I decided I’d rather put that time and energy toward people and experiences that enrich life.
• I began walking to work, so I rarely drove even one car, much less two. If I drove at all, it was usually on weekends. And most weekends I took Uber for social outings to avoid having to park.
• I felt we were at the tail end of an economic cycle. I wanted to prepare for a downturn by reducing my expenses.

This was before the pandemic. Much of this logic is still valid, but some—using Uber, for instance—is up for debate.

Today I read an interesting KMPG report, “Automotive’s New Reality: Fewer Trips, Fewer Miles, Fewer Cars?” It discusses vehicle miles traveled (VMT) going forward. Here are a few highlights:

• A work-from-home norm could reduce commuting and VMT.
• Online shopping and delivery services (for groceries, for example) could reduce shopping trips and VMT.
• Reduced use of public transportation could increase consumer VMT.
• Will mobility services such as Uber and Lyft return to growth? Consumer comfort with mobility-as-a-service could affect consumer VMT.
• Reduced consumer VMT could increase commercial VMT and cause certain businesses (think UPS, FedEx, Amazon) to need more delivery vehicles.

I haven’t driven much in the last five months and I don’t see that changing for the rest of the year. I believe the pandemic is fundamentally changing human behavior. The old norms will cease to exist, and new norms are forming. I envision reduced consumer activity and more time at home. Socializing will be with more intimate groups of family and friends in homes.

Cars aren’t going away anytime soon, but I do think their role in people’s lives will diminish. Industries that support this new reality will grow: e-commerce, logistics, transportation and delivery, etc. Commercial VMT and employment opportunities in these industries will grow too.

What are your predictions about cars and VMT?