A few months back, I shared that 2023 was shaping up to be a lackluster year for initial public offerings (IPOs). The year is officially over and the final tally is in. We ended 2023 with 154 IPOs, a decrease from 2022’s 181 offerings and a dramatic drop from 2021’s 1,035 offerings. Post global financial crisis, 2023 had the second-fewest IPOs. The lowest count was 133 offerings in 2016.

I view IPOs as an indicator of public-market investor sentiment, and I’m curious to see if IPO activity changes materially in 2024.

If you want more annual IPO data, take a look here.

Fred Wilson shared his 2024 predictions yesterday. Wilson is a well-known VC and general partner at Union Square Ventures. Here are a few of his points that I took note of:

• A soft landing is likely given decreasing inflation and interest rate hikes being less likely.
• There’s more innovation in today’s environment than any other time in his forty-year career.
• This year will be the coming-out party for “the new energy stack.”
• The business of venture capital will need to find its new norm. We’re a couple of years into a transition that will take until 2025, at least, to play out.
• Capital markets will likely be robust in 2024.

Wilson is a seasoned investor who’s been through a few cycles and achieved outsize returns. Given his track record, I enjoy reading how he’s thinking about things. His predictions may or may not come to fruition, but they’re interesting perspectives to consider.

I think public markets will set the tone for the year. If public markets are flat or continue to march higher in Q1 2024, we’ll likely see most of Wilson’s predictions become reality. If public markets start to decline in Q1, his predictions are less likely to transpire.

I hope the new year is off to a great start for everyone!

Today is the last day of 2023. The place slowed down this year. People were much more optimistic than in 2022. For me personally, it was another good year. I definitely experienced ups and downs, but overall I learned and grew a ton. I’m thankful for the opportunity to experience another year, and I’m excited for what 2024 has in store.

This week I listened to a friend describe a proposal they’d been presented with. I recognized it as a classic “heads I win, tails you lose” scenario: the party on the other side from my friend would win regardless of the outcome. To be fair, these situations don’t always end badly: if the other party wins, you could win also. But if you lose, they still win.

I’m not a fan of this type of situation because of the misalignment of incentives. The other party is fine regardless of the outcome, so they usually have minimal incentive to push for an outcome that benefits you. This is different than a situation where your incentives are aligned and you win or lose together—in that case, the other party is much more likely to push for the outcome where you both win.

These situations are much more prevalent that people realize, but I do my best to identify and avoid being part of them.

This is my one-hundred-ninety-sixth weekly reflection. Here are my takeaways from this week:

• Second-guessing – This week I had a plan for how I wanted to execute a task. Something happened and I second-guessed myself and the task didn’t get executed. The lesson learned? Stick to the plan!
• Christmas – I had a great time with friends and family for Christmas.
• 2024 – Three days from the new year. I’m excited about what’s in store for 2024.

Week one hundred ninety-six was another week of learning. Looking forward to next week!

I’m glad I set a Christmas reading goal. Four or five months ago,  I bought a 500-page book that I’ve been putting off reading—partly because of the length and partly because I didn’t think understanding the book’s topic could have broad implications. I’ve been reading this book during the holiday, and I regret not reading it sooner. The topic is extremely interesting, the author does a great job of providing historical context, and the understanding I’ve gained so far has me thinking about various broad implications of the knowledge.

If I hadn’t set a reading goal, I likely wouldn’t have read this book for a few more months. I’m glad the goal motivated me to read it now.

As of today, It won’t be easy to hit my reading goal, but I’m still committed to the challenge. Wish me luck!

I had a good conversation with a founder friend recently. We discussed people who wait for opportunities to fall in their laps and people who find nonobvious opportunities and a way to be part of them. For a founder of an early-stage start-up, hiring the latter type is usually better.

During our exchange, my friend described the second group as people who show “purposeful progression in life.” I like that because it’s simple. Has someone identified an objective, and are they proactively taking action to move toward it, even if no clear path exists? If yes, they’re not just progressing, they’re progressing purposefully.

Are you progressing, progressing purposefully, regressing, or standing still?

I love the Christmas holiday. It’s a great opportunity to spend time with family and friends and eat amazing food. Historically, the week between Christmas and New Year’s is slow, business-wise, which I enjoy. It’s usually a week when I don’t have to worry about emails, calls, or any other fire drills. I’ve enjoyed spending this time reflecting on the past year and thinking about the future from a high level.

I’m looking forward to the rest of the week.

Merry Christmas!

I hope everyone had a happy holiday!