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This Week’s Book: Reverse-Engineering Stock Prices

In addition to entrepreneurship, I love investing. It’s an intellectual sport that you can never master and that requires continual learning. A few weeks ago, I listened to a podcast with investor and Columbia Business School professor Michael Mauboussin in which he described the concept of expectations investing. The gist is that it’s a method of figuring out what’s already factored into a stock’s current price. He mentioned his book, which details the method, so I bought a copy.

I read the updated and revised version of Expectations Investing, which describes an interesting framework for deconstructing a stock price. The main principle in this framework that makes it different from other valuation methods is that you don’t forecast cash flows to determine the worth of a company and its stock price. Instead, you estimate expectations that are factored into the current stock price to determine what the market anticipates cash flows will be and how many years into the future the market is forecasting those cash flows (i.e., the forecast period). It’s akin to starting at the end and working backward, which intrigued me. Once you know what the market is expecting, you can determine if those expectations are reasonable or will likely lead to revisions (i.e., changes in the stock price).

The framework is great, but it’s not for beginners. I think of it as a graduate-level approach to value investing. It’s not easy to execute initially, but with work and practice, it can be learned by anyone. The book’s website offers useful tutorials that supplement learning.

Other things I like about this book are the “expectations infrastructure” frameworks around thinking about company value creation (value triggers, value factors, and value drivers). The three methods for estimating the continuing value of a company in a discounted cash flow model that incorporates inflation expectations were very useful. And I found his step-by-step approach to determining a company’s cost of capital useful.

I’m glad I read this book. It led to my doing some modeling and analysis of companies using this method, which was both frustrating and fun. If you’re interested in learning about advanced value investing and understanding what’s priced into a stock already, consider reading Expectations Investing.

Two Books Added: Compounding Wisdom and Amazon’s Playbook

In 2024, I challenged myself to accelerate my learning by reading a book (usually a biography) a week. To date, I’ve done it for 71 consecutive weeks. I wanted to share what I was reading and also keep track for myself, which was difficult (see here), so I created a Library section on this site. I added to it all the books I’ve read since my book-a-week habit began in March 2024, and I’ve committed to adding my latest read to the Library every Sunday (see the latest here).

That left the books I’d read before 2024 unshared and untracked. I set a goal to add my old reading to the Library over time. It began with a Memorial Day Challenge to add five books (see here) and continued with my challenging myself to add two books every weekend until my backlog is gone. This past weekend was my seventh weekend, and I added two more books:

That’s the latest update on my weekend goal. I hope that sharing these books will add value to others.

This Week's Book: The Forgotten Father of VC, Georges Doriot

I’m a first-generation entrepreneur committed to learning as much about entrepreneurship as I can. The best way I’ve found to do that is to study entrepreneurs. So, every week, I share a book that I’ve read about an entrepreneur; most are biographies. I post my latest read every Sunday in the Library on this site.

A few years ago, I read The Power Law, which details the history of the venture capital industry, mostly focusing on San Francisco’s ecosystem and VC firms. As I continued learning venture capital history, I discovered Georges Doriot. He was a Harvard Business School (HBS) professor, and he founded one of the first venture capital firms in 1946. His firm, American Research and Development Corporation (ARDC), was publicly traded on the stock market. I didn’t know there was such a thing as a publicly traded VC firm; this intrigued me.  

I found a biography about Doriot’s life, Creative Capital, and gave it a read. Doriot was born in France and emigrated to the U.S. after his father’s factory was decimated in World War I. He was the first Frenchman to attend HBS and started as an investment banker in NYC but quickly became an assistant dean at HBS. This role morphed into his teaching a course and being promoted to an "Assistant Professor of Industrial Management."

An interesting part of this story is Doriot’s path through the Army during World War II, which was pivotal to his founding a VC firm. He managed procurement, which during a global war was no easy task. He and his team had to create products that met the unique needs of deployed troops (think boots that leave minimal footprints in the mud so enemy soldiers can’t track U.S. troops), have private companies manufacture products in sufficient quantities by certain dates (think General Motors building 100,0000 Jeeps in four months), and coordinate delivery of ungodly quantities of various goods and food to war zones. The team building, product development, and problem-solving skills he developed were invaluable and gave him experience managing chaos (which is valuable to entrepreneurs).

Also notable was that even in the early days of VC, the Power Law ruled returns. ARDC’s best investment, which made up the majority of its returns, was a $70,000 check into Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) that turned into more than $200 million for ARDC, in large part due to ARDC owning over 50% of DEC when it went public.

This biography was well-researched and had a thorough bibliography and notes section. Anyone interested in learning about the birth of the venture capital industry or why VC firms don’t do well as public companies should consider reading Creative Capital.

This Week: July 4th Push—Four Books Added

In 2024, I challenged myself to accelerate my learning by reading a book (usually a biography) a week. To date, I’ve done it for 70 consecutive weeks. I wanted to share what I was reading and also keep track for myself, which was difficult (see here), so I created a Library section on this site. I added to it all the books I’ve read since my book-a-week habit began in March 2024, and I’ve committed to adding my latest read to the Library every Sunday (see the latest here).

That left the books I’d read before 2024 unshared and untracked. I set a goal to add my old reading to the Library over time. It began with a Memorial Day Challenge to add five books (see here) and continued with my challenging myself to add two books every weekend until my backlog is gone. This past weekend was a holiday weekend and my sixth weekend. I decided to push myself a bit and added four more books:

That’s the update on my July 4th goal.

This Week’s Book: The Fund of Funds King, Bernie Cornfeld

In May, I read A Short History of Financial Euphoria, which described famous financial bubbles from the 1600s’ tulip mania to the 1980s’ junk-bond frenzy and savings-and-loan crisis. One of the companies mentioned was Investors Overseas Services (IOS), a multibillion-dollar fund of funds built in the 1960s by Bernie Cornfeld. I’ve read about IOS and Cornfeld in other books and was always curious, so I read a biography about Cornfeld, The Bernie Cornfeld Story, written by an early IOS employee.

The biography provides an insider’s perspective on Cornfeld’s life, his personality, and how he built IOS. It details what allowed Cornfeld to rise from social worker in the United States to international financier in Switzerland, as well as his battles with the SEC and how his empire crumbled after IOS’s IPO in 1969.

Cornfeld’s story was pretty wild. It’s interesting to learn how he and IOS rode the bull market of the 1950s and 1960s to insane heights but then were crushed when the market began to reverse in the early 1970s.

I still want to learn more about Cornfeld and will look for more books on him and his associates.

4th of July Challenge: Log 4 Books in My Library

I like to use holidays to unwind, but I’ve also established a habit of setting myself a challenge for each holiday. I enjoy a challenge, and it adds something different to the holiday. I don’t always knock these out of the park. Sometimes I succeed, and sometimes I fail (I chronically overestimate what I can accomplish). Either way, it’s fun to push myself toward a goal that I care about (even if others couldn’t care less). I always learn something during the process.

The Library on this site accurately shows every book I’ve read in 2024 and 2025, but not before that. I’ve been adding books that I read before 2024, but that’s a longer-term weekend project. I usually add two books per weekend.

I want to ramp that up a bit this holiday weekend. I’m aiming to add four books to the Library by Tuesday.

That’s the challenge. Very simple. Wish me luck!

This Week: 100x Stocks from Thomas Phelps and Chris Mayer

In 2024, I challenged myself to accelerate my learning by reading a book (usually a biography) a week. To date, I’ve done it for 69 consecutive weeks. I wanted to share what I was reading and also keep track for myself, which was difficult (see here), so I created a Library section on this site. I added to it all the books I’ve read since my book-a-week habit began in March 2024, and I’ve committed to adding my latest read to the Library every Sunday (see the latest here).

That left the books I’d read before 2024 unshared and untracked. I set a goal to add my old reading to the Library over time. It began with a Memorial Day Challenge to add five books (see here) and continued with my challenging myself to add two books every weekend until my backlog is gone. This past weekend was my fifth weekend, and I added two more books:

That’s the latest update on my weekend goal. I hope that sharing these books will add value to others.

This Week's Book: How the Smartest Entrepreneurs Read

I’m a first-generation entrepreneur committed to learning as much about entrepreneurship as I can. The best way I’ve found to do that is to study entrepreneurs. So, every week, I read a book I’ve read about or heard about from an entrepreneur; they’re mostly biographies. I post my latest read every Sunday in the Library on this site.

In May, I watched an interview with Gary Hoover, founder of Hoover’s Inc., which went public in 1999 and was sold to Dun & Bradstreet for $117 million; BOOKSTOP, which was sold to Barnes & Nobles; and the American Business History Center. In that interview, Hoover discussed his personal library of 70,000 books and his approach to learning through reading. And he wrote a book on this topic, The Lifetime Learner’s Guide to Reading and Learning. I’m always looking for ways to improve my approach to learning, so I bought a copy.

The book is a practical framework for learning through reading. It reminds me of Mortimer Adler’s book How to Read a Book, except it’s for people who read to solve problems and generate ideas (e.g., entrepreneurs and investors). Here are my favorite sections of this book:

  • Hoover’s list of the top 160 books you should know about
  • How information flow (sharing what you learn) enhances your learning
  • How you can compound what you learn on the internet with books
  • How the key to success is seeing or understanding something others don’t, which often requires looking where others don’t look
  • The five ways we learn
  • How to leverage network thinking
  • How breakthrough innovations come from combining two well-known ideas that no one considered putting together—connecting the seemingly unconnected is the secret of the genius

I enjoyed other sections of this book too, so this isn’t a comprehensive list.

Anyone interested in multidisciplinary learning or how to read and learn more effectively should consider this book. It’s a great complement to How to Read a Book.

This Week: Adam Seessel and Terry Smith on Growth Investing

In 2024, I challenged myself to accelerate my learning by reading a book (usually a biography) a week. To date, I’ve done it for 68 consecutive weeks. I wanted to share what I was reading and also keep track for myself, which was difficult (see here), so I created a Library section on this site. I added to it all the books I’ve read since my book-a-week habit began in March 2024, and I’ve committed to adding my latest read to the Library every Sunday (see the latest here).

That left the books I’d read before 2024 unshared and untracked. I set a goal to add my old reading to the Library over time. It began with a Memorial Day Challenge to add five books (see here) and continued with my challenging myself to add two books every weekend until my backlog is gone. This past weekend was my fourth weekend, and I added two more books:

That’s the latest update on my weekend goal. I hope that sharing these books will add value to others.

This Week’s Read: Ivar Kreuger’s Billion-Dollar Smoke Screen

I’m a first-generation entrepreneur committed to learning as much about entrepreneurship as I can. The best way I’ve found to do that is to study entrepreneurs. So, every week, I share a book that I’ve read about an entrepreneur; most are biographies. I post my latest read every Sunday in the Library on this site.

Last month, I read A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith. It mentioned Ivar Kreuger and the scandal surrounding the loans he made to governments in exchange for national match monopolies. I was curious, so I read a biography about Kreuger, The Match King.

The biography is well-researched with a thorough bibliography and notes section. It’s somewhat dense because of the complexity of Kreuger’s empire, but the complexity is fascinating because it gave me context. It does a great job of detailing Krueger’s rise from working construction jobs to being one of the wealthiest men in the world to being one of the biggest manufacturers of matches (this was before most homes were wired for electricity), and also mastering finance and loaning money to foreign nations (with string attached).

I enjoyed learning more about how governments financed their deficits before central banks by borrowing from financiers like Kreuger, J. P. Morgan Jr. (Jack), and the Rothschild family. Learning about the massive debt of Germany and other nations after WWI, the boom of the stock market in the roaring 1920s, its bust in the 1930s, and the impact of all this was eye opening.

Kreuger’s story was pretty wild and full of cautionary tales. Anyone interested in Kreuger or the 1920s and 1930s might enjoy The Match King.